Globalization Milestones

Appendix Two
Milestones in the History of Globalization.

I don’t know where I’m going from here, but I promise it won’t be boring.

David Bowie (1947-2016).
Musician, songwriter, actor, genius, etc.

Introduction

The list of significant globalization milestones in the table below is broadly chronological. However, history rarely plays out linearly. Major events often have limited lasting impact, e.g. the ‘Great Exhibition’ of 1851, while apparently minor events have huge ramifications. The latter was spectacularly demonstrated when a single moment in time, the assassination of Austria’s Archduke Franz Ferdinand in tiny Sarajevo, led to the global conflagration known as the Great War. Similarly, Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbour on December 7th 1941, famously described by President Franklin D. Roosevelt as “a date which will live in infamy”, enticed the previously neutral USA to enter World War II and changed the course of history in previously unimaginable ways.

When starting the first edition of Ten Years in early 2018, nuclear Armageddon seemed on the cards as Supreme Leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-Un, brandished his bombs, and US President Donald Trump bragged about the size of his buttons and warned of “Fire and Fury”. By the time of the manuscript’s submission later in the year, the two shared an emerging bromance and planned a lovefest in Singapore. While writing this second edition, Covid-19 and its ever-expanding mutations and variations wreaked havoc throughout the world economy. Its legacy and implications for the long march of globalization won’t be fully understood for many years – if not decades – to come.

The image below illustrates the rationale behind the phrase’ long march’ as I use it here to describe the path of globalization, which, in this book, is rooted in late seventeenth- and early eighteenth-century political economy. The bright light at the end of the milestone-lined road does not suggest that the direction of travel is universally agreed upon, nor does it present a deterministic historical journey. It will lead somewhere, as Ten Years has demonstrated. But where it goes, nobody knows: Shangri-La? Or Armageddon?

Globalization Milestones on the road to — where?

Any list such as this is defined as much by what it leaves out as what it includes, and this compilation of globalization milestones is no exception. The prime selection criterion used for which events should be included was the global impact they made, either short or long-term. Purely local events were not included, but that is not to say they were unimportant, especially for those constituents and stakeholders affected by them. I apologise in advance for any offence associated with missing significant dates, events, and/or what other commentators might deem to be critical historical processes.

Writers on globalization dynamics come from diverse backgrounds and disciplines, and there is a broad spectrum of opinion regarding likely outcomes along the optimistic (Shangri-La) to pessimistic (Armageddon) continuum. However, a strong consensus exists regarding the role of communications as a catalyst and/or accelerator/retardant of globalization’s progress.

This is particularly true in discussions of economics, international business and society, topics that feature heavily throughout Ten Years. In the chronological ‘Milestones’ table below, I separate significant ‘Step-change Communications’ events and processes from the rest and highlight them at the end of each period within which they most readily fit.

The Globalization Milestones

 

5,300
Years ago
(approx.)		 In 1991, hikers in the Austrian Ötztal Alps discovered a mummified body protruding from a melting glacier. Archaeologists dated the frozen remains as being 5,300 years old and gave him the nickname Ötzi, ‘The Iceman’. They were able to demonstrate that he was travelling between two locations, contending with confidence that he was moving with the purpose of exchanging goods, from one community to another. International trade, if not born, or ‘free’ (who knows?), is proven.
1700s # The First Industrial Revolution begins in the mid-18th Century, in Great Britain.

# Empire building and colonisation.

# European mercantilism dominates world trade.
1776 Adam Smith publishes An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations:

      • ‘Invisible Hand’ of the market (allocation of scarce resources).
      • Consumer sovereignty (the customer is king).
      • Theory of Absolute Advantage.
      • Birth of classical economics.
      • A proponent of liberalism.
1800s – 1914 1817: David Ricardo publishes On the Principles of Political Economy: And Taxation:

      • Theory of Comparative Advantage.
      • Campaigning for free trade intensifies.

1840s: ‘Golden Era’, 2nd phase of the industrial revolution. The railway boom is financed by the creation of equity (stock) markets.

1843: The Economist magazine is launched to lobby for liberal democracy and free trade: “[to take part] in a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress”.

1846: UK Corn Laws repealed: Free trade and the ascendancy of business over aristocracy.

1851: The Great Exhibition, Crystal Palace, London. The height of Britain’s global industrial and military strength.

1868: Meiji Restoration. Japan ‘opens its doors’ to international trade.

# Gas, oil, electricity, etc.

Step-change Communications – 1800s:

      • Railroads.
      • Steamships.
      • Ocean-bed cables laid.
      • Telegraph.
      • Telephone.

Step-change Communications – Early 1900s:

      • The Wright Brothers fly; early ‘flight machines’ are built.
      • The internal combustion engine is refined, and Henry Ford creates automobile mass manufacturing processes – the assembly line.
      • Luxury cruise liners (plus freight) expands, especially on transatlantic routes linking the Americas with Europe.
      • Aircraft manufacture scaled up, and output accelerates as the First World War unfolds.
1914 – 1918 The Great War.
1917 – 1920 1917: ‘Ten days that shook the world’: The Russian Revolution.

1919: Treaty of Versailles; John Maynard Keynes publishes The Economic Consequences of the Peace.

Step-Change Communications:
War technologies commercialised for mass-market consumption, e.g. passenger airlines.
1920s / 1930s # Hyper-inflation in Germany; social unrest etc.

# Hitler elected.

# The Great Gatsby: America parties.

# Rise of fascist tendency in Europe:

    • General Franco – Spain.
    • Benito Mussolini – Italy.
    • Adolf Hitler – Germany.
    • Oswald Mosley – UK.

# American party ends: The Wall St. Crash.

# The Great Depression.

# Nationalism/protectionism emerges worldwide.

1933: John Maynard Keynes publishes The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Keynesian macroeconomic management principles become dominant in major developed countries.

Step-change Communications:
Luxury international commercial air travel.

Step-change Communications:
Early development of RADAR.
1939 – 1945 The Second World War.
1944 Bretton Woods Conference, USA: John Maynard Keynes returns. Keynes and Harry Dexter White led the charge. Blueprints agreed for ‘A New World Order’:

      • International Monetary Fund (IMF).
      • General Agreement on Tariffs & Trade (GATT).
      • The World Bank.
1945 – 1949 Chinese Communist Revolution against Kuomintang (KMT). Mao Zedong ascends in mainland China (People’s Republic of China, PRC). KMT under Chiang Kai-shek retreat to Taiwan (Republic of China, ROC).
1950s / 1960s # US Wealthy.

# Japan recovers.

# Europe reconstructs.

1950-1953: Korean War; South Korea is protected by the USA; North Korea supported by Soviet Union and China. Stalemate.

# China’s ‘Great Leap Forward’; huge backward step.

# Two-front Cold War: The Russian Bear (NATO protects); The Chinese Panda (huge
USA military presence in and around South Korea, air bases in Japan, etc.).

# Colonisation, empire and mercantilism unravel (e.g. UK in India, France in North Africa).

1951: Treaty of Paris. France, West Germany, Italy, and the three Benelux countries (Belgium, Netherlands, and Luxemburg) establish the European Coal and Steel Community and lay down the foundations for the European Union.

1957: Treaty of Rome creates the European Economic Community (EEC).

1960: OPEC Created: Sovereign state (’legitimate’) cartel formed.

# Cold War proxy wars, e.g. the Vietnam War (1955-1975).

# South Korean market protected from international trade; giant chaebol conglomerates created: Samsung, Hyundai, Kia, Lucky Goldstar (LG), etc. They export at marginal cost prices with impunity.

Step-change Communications:
Containerization: American transport entrepreneur Malcolm Purcell McLean introduces the intermodal (rail/road/sea) shipping container; this revolutionises freight transportation and the logistics of international trade. He was persuaded to give patented designs to the industry, bringing standardisation of shipping containers, improved reliability, reduced cargo theft, lower inventory costs, and shortened transit times.

Step-change Communications:
Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956 lays the foundations for the US Interstate Highway System.

Step-change Communications:
Commercial jet airlines and global airport infrastructure developed.

Step-change Communications:
IBM develops commercially viable mainframe computers and supporting software and services.
1970s # Gold standards end; paper (and nickel) triumph.

# World Bank rules change seeds chronic African debt crisis.

April 1971: ‘Ping-pong diplomacy’: an American table tennis team playing a tournament in Japan is invited to visit the PRC for ‘friendly’ matches.

October 1971: UN Assembly votes resolution to “expel forthwith the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek [ROC – Taiwan] from the place which they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations and in all organizations related to it”. Mao’s PRC became “the only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations”.

# Panda diplomacy: President Richard Nixon (with Henry Kissinger) visits China in February 1972 and is gifted two pandas (Ling-Ling and Hsing-Hsing). China seems keen to establish diplomatic relations with the US and its allies, e.g. Japan. Not great news for Taiwan.

October 6-25, 1973: Yom Kippur War. Arab-Israeli Conflict: A coalition of Arab states (led by Egypt and Syria) against Israel.

# OPEC flexes muscle. Quadrupling of oil price – twice in 5 Years: 1974 and 1979.

September 9, 1976: Mao Zedong (aka Great Helmsman) of China dies.

# Global recession and stagflation (high inflation/low growth/high unemployment) are predominant.

# Post-panda Taiwan: ‘export-or-die’ mentality drives its trade ambitions.

# Government capital controls lifted, globalizing free-market theories and nation-state economic policies.
1979 – 1980 1979: Margaret Thatcher becomes Prime Minister of the UK.

1980: Ronald Reagan elected the 40th President of the USA, inaugurated on January 20, 1981.

1979/1980: Milton Friedman (with wife Rose) publishes Free to Choose: A Personal Statement. Neoclassical economics; principles of monetarism; a blueprint for macroeconomic management; dominant economic philosophy to the present day.
1980s # Deregulation of global financial markets (e.g. Big Bang, UK, 1987).

# Privatisation in the UK.

# Privatisation in France.

# China under Deng Xiaoping: “socialism with Chinese characteristics”; “one country, two systems”. Market liberalization, FDI allowed and Special Economic Zones (SEZs) created along the east coast and south-east Guangdong province.

March 10, 1985: Michael Gorbachev becomes General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Enacts policies of glasnost (openness/political freedom) and perestroika (restructuring/economic reform).

1989: Tiananmen Square: student protests quashed by Deng’s orders and PLA ‘June Fourth Incident’. A question mark hangs over China’s economic reforms.

Step-change Communications:
Apple launch Macintosh personal computer. Feeling threatened, IBM launches the initiative ‘PC in a Year’; partners with Intel and Microsoft; presents open systems architecture, fostering IBM-compatibles (e.g. Compaq, Dell) and ‘clones’ (‘Made in Taiwan’).

Step-change Communications:
‘Natural monopoly’ status of national telecommunications infrastructure dissolves; AT&T (Ma Bell) broken up in the US in 1984, ‘Baby Bells’ are born. Privatisation of BT in UK, 1984; scene set for further privatisations, direct competition (e.g. Cable & Wireless in the UK) and emergent disruptive technologies.

Step-change Communications:
First-generation cellular infrastructure developed.

Step-change Communications:
Rapid development of distributed networked computing: Local Area Networks (LANs) and Wide Area Networks (WANs) lay foundations for the www revolution which follows.
1990s # Berlin Wall falls / Comecon collapses. USSR dissolves. Cold War (Round One) ends.

October 3, 1990: German reunification (German Unity): A process culminating in the German Democratic Republic (‘East Germany’) and the Federal Republic of Germany (‘West Germany’) forming the reunited nation of Germany. Berlin comes together as a single city and regains status as the German capital.

# Deng reaffirms China’s economic reform program in ‘Southern Tour’.

February 7, 1992: Maastricht Treaty (Treaty on European Union) signed by the twelve member states of the European Community.

September 16, 1992: George Soros versus Bank of England: Soros wins.

January 1, 1993: European Single Market established.

January 1, 1994: North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) created.

January 1, 1995: World Trade Organization (WTO) replaces GATT as the independent regulator of global commerce; India joins.

# Privatisation in Russia: the return of the oligarchs.

# Privatisation in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries.

# Japan: ‘The Lost Decade’ – failure of bank regulation and asset management (e.g. equities, property) is the core problem.

July 1, 1997: Hong Kong ‘Handed Over’ (returned) to China by the UK.

# George Soros versus Bank of Thailand: Soros wins; Asian financial markets meltdown (The ‘Asian financial crisis’); Russian Federation defaults.

# Genius fails: Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) collapses but no one notices (except author Roger Lowenstein, who exposes the scandal).

January 1, 1999: ‘Virtual’ European monetary union and Euro launched.

# dot.com ‘economy’ emerges.

Step-change Communications:
Global Positioning System (GPS), started by (and under control of) US Military in 1973, becomes fully operational and globally accessible in 1995.

Step-change Communications:
Cisco Systems develop mass-market internet infrastructure networks.

Step-change Communications:
Tim Berners Lee (not Al Gore) ‘invents’ the internet: creates HTML and integrates internet protocols at CERN laboratories, Switzerland.

Step-change Communications:
Amazon founded by Jeff Bezos in 1994; perfectly poised to exploit the coming Windows 95 revolution. Is this perfect timing and entrepreneurial prowess – or good luck?

Step-change Communications:
Windows ’95 and rapid WWW global expansion.

Step-change Communications:
Open skies industry deregulation in the US and the rise of the low-cost airline sector (e.g. Southwest Airlines).

Step-change Communications:
Rapid development of fibre-optic telecommunications networks in ‘developed’ countries.
2000s December 11, 2001: China joins WTO.

# India accelerates market liberalisation.

9/11: George W. Bush begs the US public to shop on Thanksgiving in November 2001. Why? Consumer confidence drives economic growth, plus a political message is sent to the world that the US will not be cowed.

January 1, 2002: Euro goes tangible; notes and coins are distributed in Eurozone economies.

# EU enlargement commences. From ten to twenty-eight member states

# Emerging markets – emerge! Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRICs) etc.

2007/2008: Global financial markets convulse.

# Ireland and southern European countries face financial meltdown: Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain (the PIGSs etc.); Italy is on the brink.

# Germany prospers, builds huge trade surpluses.

# China successfully rides the financial crisis economic storm.

# Currency wars?

Step-change Communications:
The dot.com ‘economy’ falters, but its global infrastructure is installed.

Step-change Communications:
Household penetration of broadband expands rapidly, creating global communications infrastructure and consumer e-commerce channels.

Step-change Communications:
3rd and 4th-generation cellular infrastructure developed.

Step-change Communications:
Widespread adoption of cellular technology in emerging markets.
  2010 – present August 22, 2012: Russian Federation joins WTO.

March 18, 2014: Russian Federation annexes Crimea; dropped from G8.

June 23, 2016: The British public votes with a small majority (but large turnout) to leave the European Union. Brexit negotiations begin.

November 8, 2016: Donald Trump elected the 45th President of the United States of America. His electoral platform includes ‘Make America Great Again’ and hints strongly at protectionism and trade wars.

January 20, 2017: Donald Trump presidential inauguration.

March 29, 2017: Teresa May signs letter to Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. Letter hand-delivered by two civil servants travelling business class to Brussels on Eurostar. Cost of tickets? £985.50p.

March 8, 2018: Donald Trump announces punitive tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, citing ‘national security’ to bypass WTO rules.

# Brexit processes meander.

# China launches ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI). Xi Jinping’s ‘project of the century’.

Step-change Communications:
Apple (iPhone – iOS) and Google (Android) drive the smartphone revolution. Social media and social networks develop, e.g. MySpace, Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, LinkedIn, Tencent, TikTok, WhatsApp, etc. Chinese giant Baidu has 2 billion active users worldwide.

Step-change Communications:
‘Big Data’ and ‘Cloud’ computing create impact.

Step-change Communications:
‘Virtual’ global marketplaces created by Alibaba, Amazon, eBay, Etsy, Facebook, Google, Shein, Temu. The smallest of small firms can now access global markets.

Step-change Communications:
5th generation cellular technology.

Step-change Communications:
Artificial Intelligence (AI); Virtual Reality (VR); Machine Learning/Deep Learning.
April 27, 2018 Korea Summit: Moon Jae-in (down-South) and Kim Jong Un (up-North) get friendly, crisscrossing no man’s land into each other’s DMZ trenches: End-of-war or silent night?

Concluding Remarks

A broadly chronological list like this could never be fully comprehensive unless presented with a different scope or redefined with a narrative presented in book form.

Over many decades there have been multiple interruptions to the smooth progression of globalization. Despite this, by taking a long-term historical perspective, it is possible to recognise that the forces driving it forward have far outweighed those working against it.